Friday, May 18, 2007

Friday Baseball Notes

By Michael Haas

I'm going to try to give you a September perspective in May. The Twins are out. I said it. Yeah, I remember what they did last year. But this is different. If we can't win games when these guys named Ramon and Carlos are pitching way over their heads, how are we going to win when they come back to earth? There are three solid teams ahead of us this year, rather than just two. I doubt that all three will play sub-.500 ball after the all-star break, as they did last year. We don't have an MVP waiting to bust out or a Cy Young candidate jumping from the bullpen to the rotation. We have Nick Punto. We have Mauer on the DL. We have Lew Ford. We have Ramon Ortiz. I'm not negative, I keep it real. Of course, if we somehow climb out of this, I will pretend I never said any of this. Anyway, I encourage you all to view every at-bat as one step closer to that magical year....

A year that will be called 2010

You see, in the year 2010, all will be cool. We may even win the whole thing. I don't know if you heard about this, but there is a new ballpark opening in Minneapolis. It is being built especially for you and I and the Twins. And it's an outdoor ballpark. That's twenty million dollars of revenue toward payroll, which we'll begin to see by the beginning of '09. It's guaranteed good times.

Our rotation will be solid. Six to choose from. Baker, Liriano, Perkins, Garza, Slowey and Boof. If we trade Johan or some of our other non-m&m boys before we lose them to free agency, we should have some good young hitters. Mauer and Morneau will move back in with each other and mash baseballs, Liriano's left elbow will be an indestructible slider-throwing machine and Mauer will be a gold glove third basemen. November 3rd, 2010 I will be on Nicollet Mall at a parade. I am telling the truth.

So don't worry, just enjoy the season. Watch Justin and Joe and Johan do their thing. Don't worry about the standings. Be patient, for our time is near.

Am I bad luck? A statistical analysis

I have been to five Twins games this year. The Twins have won just one of those games, while losing four. That is a .200 winning percentage. But how bad is my bad luck? On which do I have a greater affect, hitting or pitching? Let's look at some numbers.

Twins: 15 runs

Opponents: 18 runs. Close!

Twins batting average when I’m there: .228

Overall 2007 batting average through 5/17: .273

Twins ERA when I’m there: 3.60

Overall Twins ERA through 5/17: 4.07

It appears that I am good for pitching and bad for hitting. At future games, I’ll try to note where I sit and what I wear to see how it correlates to batting average, ERA, and most importantly, wins.

I also attended the Rockies square off with the Diamondbacks on opening day. Obviously, I wasn’t cheering for either team, but there are a few things to note in this one. I wanted ’06 NL Cy Young winning Brandon Webb to do well for the D-Backs, since he is on my fantasy team. I also wanted former Twin LaTroy Hawkins to do well for the Rockies, since I am still in his official fan club. Almost everyone in that stadium that day was rooting for the Rockies. It would take some luck for none of those three things to happen.

Webb pitched badly and gave the Rockies the early lead. Looked like the Rockies were on their way to victory number one - until the top of the 8th, when LaTroy takes the mound and gives up three runs. Ballgame. And the hot dogs were terrible.

Can the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 games?

With the upcoming inter-league series against this hot hitting "brew crew", much has been made around the Twin Cities about the Brewers fast start. I have discussed this with two of my friends, and found two different opinions. One dude thinks they won't win the division. One dude thinks they'll win 100 games. I think both these ideas are ludicrous. AH! contributor Tom Daymont reports that the last time a sub-.500 team won 100 games the next season was the AZDBACKS in '98 and '99. Those mother fuckers. It would be quite an accomplishment if the Brewers pulled that off. What do YOU think?


TwinsWin83 said...

The Twins have too much talent right now not to play above .500 ball, so I am not going to sit back and say "welp lets give it a few years and just hope that they make the right moves in the trade and free agent markets so that we can compete again by 2010." They need to get healthy and they need to get rid of some of the tired old arms in their rotation and replace them with some young talents (i.e. Garza, Slowley and maybe even Baker) from Rochester that can use the Major League experience as a stepping stone towards a successful future. Who knows we may even get lucky and one or more of those new guns could provide the spark this team needs to get back into the winning mindset (much the same as Lariano did last year). Either way I'm not ready to give up on this group, but something does need to be done to shake things up and it needs to be done yesterday.

TwinsWin83 said...

oh yeah and 2 to 1 odds that the Brewers crash and burn. Any takers? We already got a glimpse into what team they really were last week as they lost 4 in a row to a streaky Philly team. I see the Brewers as a team much the same as the 2001 Twins were, great young talent that have the ability to start fast and win some games that maybe they shouldnt because they are ambitious and they hustle, but eventually the 162 game Major League grind will catch up with them. The only other thing they have going for them is that they play in a terrible division, but there is no way in hell they win 100 games this year.

bizmarkie507 said...

I agree with Haasertime. The biggest reason why the Twins have yet to make it to the world series in the 4 division title years is because they couldn't score runs against lefties. They still cannot hit against great lefties. herefore they need to trade Hunter this year, and Santana next year for top of the line hitting prospects. Twins could also trade Silva/Boof/Baker and/or other 2nd tier prospects for another good hitting prospect or two.

Liriano LHP
Slowey RHP
Perkins LHP
Garza RHP

in 2010 all of them will have at least 2 full years of major league experience, thus, without question, being the best rotation in Baseball.

Morneau and Mauer will have veteran experience, and if you get 3 or 4 excellent hitting prospects (who would be ready for the majors in 3 years) to throw in the mix, this could be an absolute powerhouse of a team.

Besides, Detroit is old as is, and by the year 2010, Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rodgers, Guillen, Polanco, Ordonez, Sheffield, will
all more than likely be out of baseball. Chicago will also will have plenty of players who will be retired, or very old and past their primes in: Thome, Dye, Buehrle, Contreras, Iguchi, Vasquez, among others.

Kansas City will probably still be Kansas City, and Cleveland is gonna have to open the wallet for some of their key players. We'll see what happens with them.

So I would rather build for 2010, when there will more than likely only be one team to compete with, as opposed to this year where there are three.

Pat said...


I think that the Milwaukee Brewers will win 1000 games this year, it'll be like Rock and Jock, when they beat someone they get a 10 win credit for their record instead of the usual one win. I am talking stupid simply to have an excuse to show you this. It was on the Sports Guy's links, and the first person I thought of was you, be prepared to have your mind blown.

haasertime said...

well the brewers suck now that they're playing real teams. i even cut capuano from my fantasy team.
and scott baker looks like cy young. things are looking up..

the Dutchie said...

I think that Haas is pouting. Just because our guys who we know can hit the ball haven't been, doesnt mean that we won't have a successful season until 2010. Who the fuck knows whats going to happen in 2010? As far as I'm concerned, Morneau is still in his MVP form, and Johan still has a chance to win the Cy Young. You may think that i need to have a reality check, but give me a real arguement that tells me i can't think these things.

Haas is just posting controvercial rigamarow to get people like me all pissed off. Waters, you should be ashamed of yourself. Its MAY!

haasertime said...

i never said that our guys suck are will finish below .500
i still think they could win 85-90 games, but i dont think the division title is possible. mauer morneau cuddy and hunter will play well. santana and one of our young arms will pitch well, but that doesnt change the fact that the white sox, indians and tigers are FUCKING GOOD. Like I said, its a september take in may.

I also never said that the twins will suck in 2008 and 2009. They'll definittly compete. I'm sayin that it's cool that our teams most awesomeness could very well coincide with the new ballparks opening. it's something to look forward to.

bizmarkie507 said...

Pretty much what Haas said.

If the Twinkies build for the future, they will have the best chance to win a world series than they've had in 20 years, at least. And with the rotation I've mentioned above, along with the M&M boys, they will still be a competitive team in 08, and 09.

Cuddy could very well get hot and I think he will once Mauer gets back. Morneau is easily on pace to hit 40 home runs, and Hunter is playing like an MVP. Is it possible for the Twins to go on once in a decade run like they did last year? yes. Is it possible that all three teams in Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago fall apart? Yes. But its very unlikely that all of this happens.

I am a probability kinda guy, and the Twins probability of winning a world series this year is very bad. If they develop these young aces and trade some big guns for a wealth of young hitting talent, the probability of them winning a world series in 2010 is extremely higher.