Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Home Runs, Instant Replay and Steroids: A Quick Thought

As I am sure many of you know, this year all of Major League baseball is expected to hit 1,000 fewer home runs than in 2006. There are other ways to explain this power drop, but the most popular has been the improved steroids testing.

Add that to the controversy around instant replay as this week had at least a half-dozen incorrectly called home runs or non-home runs. Is it just me or are there are a lot fewer towering blasts reaching the 20th or 30th row and a lot more home runs that go over the fence by a few inches.

The other question is; are these two things related? Is the same reason players aren't crushing the ball into the upper deck the same reason there are so many fewer home runs. And can this be blamed on steroids?

I wish I had the time and the patience to track down some statistics about this. But, I don't. It's all my observation and anecdotal evidence. If anyone has any solid statistics explaining, or disporving my hypotheis please let me know. Also, I am interested in hearing your thoughts not only about the lack of HR power of the big guys (Sheff, Fielder, etc.) but also the Twins, MLB as a whole and the talk about instant replay.

11 comments:

haasertime said...

i hope they institute replay ONLY for home runs.

As for the connectedness between the rise in almost home runs and no more steroids, ehh i doubt it.

Sheffield is old.

soup said...

Fielder is a vegetarian now. I have never seen a vegetarian be good at sports…well, maybe Frisbee golf.

I think you are mostly right about your steroids=home runs theory, but just to throw it out there, it has been much colder than recent years. It seems that warmer weather means more homeruns, but I have also heard that warmer weather has increased the velocity for pitchers, so I don’t know. Either way Kubel is going to hit 40 dingers this year...possibly this month.

Daymonster said...

the weather is a very good point. That doesn't explain the Twins tho, half their games are a balmy 70 degrees.

Only the royals have less home runs.

Winger said...

One vegan athlete who did not totally suck after making the conversion is Tony Gonzalez of the Kansas City Chiefs.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/article_print/SB120122116182915297-lMyQjAxMDI4MDIxNTIyMjUxWj.html

Also, check out the sub-article on MMA's Mac Danzig.

Winger said...

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/article_print/SB120122116182915297-lMyQjAxMDI4MDIxNTIyMjUxWj.html

bizmarkie507 said...

The worst thing about the NFL is the instant replay. It takes too long, its completely deflating, and they still manage to screw up the call on occasion. The only way I'd be okay with it is Haas' idea. But forget the way the NFL does it, just have somebody watch the replays in a booth and call down to the field with the result. It should never take more than 2 minutes.

Daymonster said...

The thing about with baseball is, on any close play concerning a home run, at least one but usually both managers are going to come out and argue for a few minutes. It won't slow down the game.

I agree though, have a 5th Umpire be in the booth and have them make the call. I don't want monitors to be on or near the field.

soup said...

There should be pressure sensitive material placed above the homerun line. When a baseball hits that material it should set off a lazer light show. If there is a lazer light show going on, nobody would argue.

haasertime said...

fuckin love laser light shows

TwinsWin83 said...

the reason baseball is baseball is because of the human eliment when it comes to making calls such as balls and strikes, out/safe, fair/foul and even homerun or not. Leave it as it is. Baseball shouldnt have to try and compete against football and basketball in the sense of instant replay. It is its own sport, with more tradition then the other two.

The fear is that if they institute instant replays for homeruns it will only lead down a slippery slope where other controversial calls will have to be settled by replay and then all tradition will be lost.

Its funny you mention how many homers recently have been so close to either clearing the fence or not because I was just wondering about that. I dont remember any other time where there have been so many close-call homeruns in such a short period of time. I wonder if there is a connection between that fact and the decline of homeruns overall in the past 2 years.

Daymonster said...

I disagree about instant replay ruining the game, I think if done in a certain way it can aid in the game. Don't ask me how, but the idea of instant replay doesn't ruin baseball for me, the idea of them having a video screen on the field does.