By M. Haas
This thing has been dragging on far too long. News on the issue is sporadic and fairly boring, but nothing ever happens. I'm sick of talking and thinking about it, but here I am writing about it anyway.
Months ago, I came to grips with the fact that Johan Santana would not be a Twin next season. I had done the same with Torii Hunter about two years ago. It makes the pain of losing a player much more dull. So after I realized Johan would be dealt, I had lots of fun reviewing the trade scenarios and looking at the bounty of good young players we could get. But the trade still hasn't happened yet, and we've evaluated and re-evaluated every scenario.
Fans and writers are understandably restless, so luckily, they're coming up with radical new ideas. Ideas like, "The Twins should just hang onto Santana" and even, "The Twins have enough money to re-sign Santana." These wacky new scenarios are driving me crazier than I was when I was waiting for him to be traded.
ESPN baseball duder Buster Olney wrote a piece the other day arguing that the Twins should keep Santana. He says that the reason Smith hasn't (overused phrase alert) pulled the trigger on a deal, is because the offers aren't good enough. Makes sense. And he says the offers aren't likely to get any better, so they might as well hold onto him until July when teams will be clamoring for starting pitching.
Star Tribune blogger and friend of AH Howard Sinker is on a quest to get Johan signed to a long-term contract. With the Twins. This flies in the face of all the conventional wisdom out there. Baseball people assumed years ago that Johan deserves and could receive the largest contract ever for a pitcher, and the Twins could never ever afford it. But Howard, backed by TwinsGeeks recent revelations, says the Twins could and should re-sign Santana.
Very interesting stuff, even though it makes my head spin. Kudos to Howard and his legion of Section 220ists for thinking outside the box. Check out the information and let me know what you think. In my estimation, there is only one way the Twins could truly screw this up: by letting Johan walk out the door at the end of 2008 as a free agent. The other options are, of course: Trade him now, trade him later, or sign him to a long term deal. Given the circumstances, you can't fault Billy Smith for waiting.
But even with all these new scenarios, I still think Johan Santana will be traded within a couple of weeks.
Friday, January 18, 2008
I'm Going Crazy About This Santana Business
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3 comments:
I think its a big mistake to hold onto Johan into the start of the season and just assume that if things dont go well we will be able to trade him for equal or better value than what we would have gotten during this offseason.
There are too many factors that come into play during the MLB season and any number of them could nix a decent deal and result in Johan walking out the door for nothing this October.
Players get hurt, and (knock on wood) what if Johan were to go down early in the year? Then what? Or what if Phil Hughes racks up 8 wins in the first two months? The Yankees wont be willing to trade him anymore. What if Ellsbury and Lester get off to torrid starts and Boston is 10 games up? They wont be looking for another starting pitcher at that point, and certainly not one with Johans price tag.
I just think if you wait until the season you are opening an entire can of uncertainty that you dont need to. Pull the trigger soon on a Hughes/Cabrera or Lester/Ellsbury deal and we can all head into spring training with a new and exciting outlook and direction for the team and move on from all the questions and speculation that we have suffered through over the past few months.
I agree with twinswin83. There is a very good chance that the teams that could afford Johan may not need him in July. And he'd most likely block any trade that didn't come with a promise of a new contract.
And what if, surprise of surpises, the Twins are close to contending at the end of July? (I know, it's not likely, but it's not impossible either.) Then what do the Twins do? Keep him so we can keep contending knowing that we'll lose him? Or trade him for a bunch of scrubs and give up on the season?
I dare not even dream of re-signing him (I'm even afraid to put that thought into words). So yes, pull the trigger now.
k-bro
The advantage the Twins have in the Sox/Yanks contest is that it is effectively a "zero-sum game". If Boston is up by 10 games in July they may not want Santana but the Yankees will. If Hughes has 8 wins and the Yankees are up in the standings then Boston will come knocking. And a half season may put a whole lot of people in the mood to "rent to own" the "best second half pitcher of his generation." How Santana does in the first half only matters if he gets hurt. Any team that might be willing to rent him will most likely be in contention for a division championship and Santana might wave the no-trade clause because he's a free-agent at the end of the season no matter where he is. The Twins should be able to get high draft pick quality prospects since that is the compensation for a Class A free agent. And the other team is presumably getting value from having Santana.
Personally I like the idea of trying to sign him. If the Twins sign him they can always trade him later if a partner can be found.
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