By Tom Daymont
I have recently decided to re-read Moneyball and thus, have a growing interest in Bill James and other baseball statistical geniuses.
So in my spare time today I wanted to see what the AL Central Standings would be if we used Pythagorean winning percentage vs. the regular actual win-loss record.
Basically, the Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky.
It is calculated by
(Runs Scored)^1.83
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(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
Here is where the AL Central is Today
Indians_72 57 .558 -
Tigers__70 60 .528 2.5
Twins___67 63 .515 5.5
Royals__57 74 .442 15
Chi Sox_57 74 .435 16
Indians_70 59 .542 -
Tigers__69 61 .531 1.5
Twins___68 62 .523 2.5
Royals__61 68 .472 9
Chi Sox_51 79 .382 19.5
Wouldn't that be nice. We would be within striking distance in this 3 game series and the Sox would be on there way to 99 losses.
I am in the middle of getting a buttload of statistics from some websites and hopefully in the upcoming days I can have some interesting findings for you all. But, probably not.
Also, please feel free to tell me if I did any of the math wrong.
4 comments:
I really need to read moneyball. I am a huge believer in baseball stats.
moneyball is a good book. good stepping stone into thinking about baseball by numbers.
i look forward to more stats from tom.
One of the things I love about baseball is how nearly every pitch and every action on the field and be documented, studied, and scrutinized. There are some things that don’t show up as a stat that SABR Heads totally disregard. And I’m absolutely not talking about “Derek Jeter intangibles.” I mean, for example, it seems as though the SABR Heads really hate on batting average. Guys like Louis Castillo and Jason Tyner are absolutely garbage because they have “hollow batting averages.” But, to me if a guy gets a hit without scoring or hitting in a run he still makes the pitcher throw more pitches, makes him pitch out of the stretch, and make him think about the runner. I don’t think there are stats for those things, but they certainly affect the game.
I also don’t like their defensive stats.
I don't think the issue is that they don't like batting averages, its all about the OBP. Which does exactly what you are talking about, getting on base and making pitchers pitch out of the stretch.
Also, I think the most interesting point of SABR from a defensive aspect is about the error. To get an error you have to have done SOMETHING right. Even if the ball is hit right to you and you drop it, at least you were in the right spot.
If a player has a huge range they can get more errors than a person with a shorter range. I find this kind of thing fascinating, so hopefully we can have more discussions about it in the future.
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