The Liriano Conundrum

By TwinsWin83

This is not so much a post as it is a question posed to AH!'s dedicated readers. Francisco Liriano is ripping up AAA Rochester right now and sooner or later the question as to what to do with him is going to explode on the Minnesota sports scene. So what does the Minnesota ballclub do? The Twins have 4, maybe 5 (depending on your definition of success), starters that are throwing well on a team that is making a suprising run at the AL Central title.

Does the team bring this phenom, a talent that ignited the imagination of Twins faithful and baseball fans across the country two years ago with his dynamic slider and sneaky-quick fastball, back up to majors? Should the Twins bring back the same pitcher who put together a +11 ERA in his three major league appearances earlier this season?

It isn’t a secret that things are going well in the Twins camp right now, but at what point does the organization realize this might not be a season long hot-streak the team is currently on and make a move to improve a surprising and overachieving starting rotation in the long run?

The Twins might be hot right now but youth does burn out at some point in a 162 game schedule, (look at the Rays right now) so the move right now needs to be to bring the best possible pitcher into the rotation at this exact point. The logical choice to leave the rotation in favor of Liriano might be Livan to most casual fans, but it might not be that simple. He does create some amount of leadership among the staff, (as the only one above the age of 26) and has won a team-high 9 games this season.

So what to do? Lariano is ready. Period. Look at his stats. And science would tell us he is about ready as well. He is now a year and a half removed from his Tommy John surgery which is the point most experts would say is close to the time when a pitcher starts to find his true form again.

So once again I ask you as AH! fans to play the role of Twins GM and tell us what your move would be in this situation.

It’s fun to play this role when the Twins are winning as opposed to when they are tanking isn’t it?

How to Help the Twins Bullpen

Believe it or not I had this whole thing written up about how something had to be done with this bullpen. I was going to break down a few of the mistakes I saw during this embarrassing three game sweep at Fenway. Things like Bass coming in during a 0-0 tie, Nathan not pitching in any of the three games and pitching to Manny when there was an open base at first. But I decided to take a look over at MNGameday to see what the "talented" bloggers were talking about. (Side note: was the title at MNGameday always just "Gameday" or did it used to have the abbreviation for Minnesota up there. I think I might be going crazy.)

Right there at the top was Jesse from Twinkie Town. And right there, the first paragraph, perfectly described my feelings.

It's easy to over-react after a series like the one we just went through, where the bullpen is the focal point of blame for A) being unable to keep a quality performance together, like what happened with Baker and Blackburn, and B) being unable to stop the opposition from racking up 12 runs in three innings. Our bullpen failed, three games in a row, and it wasn't pretty. It was destructive, and it was disconcerting.

Damn right it's easy to over-react! Trade the whole bullpen for some maple bats.

So what the hell can we do?

1. Stand pat, and hope some of these guys can pull themselves together.
2. The non-waiver trade deadline is coming up. There are bound to be some external options available.
3. There are pitchers in Rochester who have earned a shot, an internal promotion could bolster the troops.

Alright, number one sounds good. Bring in Pat. It's just a partially torn ligament. Man up Neshek, the team needs you.

Number two, get some outside help. I like it. I got three words for you: La. Troy. Hawkins.

Number three: Probably the most likely.

Lastly, if the Twins feel like their best option going forward for the bullpen is in the minor leagues, there are a couple of arms in Rochester worthy of a call. 27-year old southpaw Ricky Barrett is having another strong season. Opponents are hitting a meager .186 off of him in 49 innings, along with 58 strikeouts an a 1.16 WHIP. If you're tired of waiting for Minnesota to promote him, 25-year old southpaw Mariano Gomez might strike your fancy. He doesn't have the strikeouts but has been very effective, with a minuscule 2.02 ERA in 44.2 innings, to go along with a 1.30 WHIP. Finally there's Bobby Korecky and his tight breaking ball, if you'd rather bring up a right-hander. In triple-A this season he's struck out 37 in 42.2 innings for a 3.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Those should probably be the first three guys in line, but even guys like Casey Daigle and Carmen Cali have been effective in relief. Tim Lahey's peripherals are better than his ERA suggests as well.

Jesse has some good suggestions but I have one that even he didn't come up with. Phil Humber. Okay, I know, I know. He is 4-7 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in AAA Rochester, Ouch. But he does have 50 strikeouts in 72 innings, that could be worse, I guess.

But here is really the brilliance behind this idea: He is 6'4" and 210 lbs. He throws right handed. Who does that sound like? I'll give you a hint. He is 6'5" and 205 lbs and also throws righty.

Yep. That's right Joe Nathan. So here is what I am thinking. If we bring in Phil in the eighth and give him a number close to Nathan's 36, I don't know, like 38. (what!? that's already his number? Perfect!) The opposing batters might not notice and will be intimidated by the idea that Gardy finally put Nathan in before the ninth. It's brilliant.

Batting Stance Guy: Twins Impersonations

I am writing this while I try not to punch my computer screen. Watching the Twins blow opportunity after opportunity is really pissing me off. So I figure what better way to take my mind off it than watch Batting Stance Guy. This isn't new, actually it's about a month old, but I just watched it again and it makes me smile. If you don't know who BSG is he is a guy that does sometimes exaggerated but often very accurate batting stances and swings of major league players past and present.

Below is his take on some current and former Twins.



I thought he did a pretty good job on all of these. He has the Morneau's twirl, Hunter's bat toss and the varying stages of Hrbek's career. No sign of the real oldies like Killebrew or Oliva but I am pretty impressed with his impersonations.

Okay, back to getting pissed at the Twins.

Mid-Season Questions and Answers

I was going to pretend that we had a bunch of questions from our loyal readership but it was just too unbelievable to even write it down. Obviously, no one has (or will) ever ask us questions when there are way more qualified Twins resources out there. But it's fun to dream and make up questions that you think you can answer. It's fun, you should try it. Seriously, do it in the comments, ask a question and answer it yourself. It's great. Here goes.


"What are the chances the Twins make the playoffs?" M.H., Minneapolis, MN

Well the PECOTA adjusted playoff odds at Baseball Prospectus puts the Twins at about 12.7% chance of making the playoffs. Based on my feelings (and that's what you were asking anyways, right?) I think the Twins chances are slightly better than that. I'd say somewhere in the 30-35% chance. I actually think the Twins have a better chance of winning the AL central than they do the Wild card. The Red Sox, Yankees and Rays are all pretty intimidating, while the White Sox and Detroit, not so much.

"Do you think Liriano will be up in the rotation soon?" M. Haas, Minneapolis, MN

If you (the imaginary person) would have asked me a week ago after Liriano had a great game against Lehigh Valley, with 7 innings, 9 SO and only 1 BB. I would have predicted that Livan would have been hit hard on the 4th and that the Twins would need to start to think about brining him up. But without Livan having a major melt down, I don't see any other starter in fear of losing their spot. In a perfect world, BS and RG would trade Livan away while he is doing alright and make room for the young Liriano. Which brings me to the next question.

"Will the Twins make a move before the deadline?" Mike H., Minneapolis, MN

It's not looking good. Bill Smith has said "you don't want to tinker too much with something that's not broken." While I agree the Twins aren't "broken" you can't be totally mesmerized my the recent success the Twins have had. Almost all those games were at home and with this upcoming road trip, things could turn around in a hurry. I don't see the Twins making a move by the 31st and that makes me a bit sad.

"Will Morneau participate in the Home Run Derby?" Michael Haas, Minneapolis, MN

Since he hasn't been asked yet, and with only 3 spots left, it's not looking good. Not that I really believe that it can fuck up your swing, I won't be sad if he doesn't participate. I just don't want to hear about how he is from Canada, played hockey growing up, is good friends with the other part of the M&M duo and all the other shit national commentators talk about constantly.

"Did Gardy make a mistake last night when he put Bass in?" Haasertime, Minneapolis, MN

Last night's game has brought about a lot of talk concerning Gardy's decision to choose Bass over well, just about anyone else in the Twins bullpen in the 8th. I think it was a mistake to not only bring him in, but to have him pitch to Manny. I was hoping, Bass would have at least walked Manny and brought Crain in to get Lowell to hit into a double play. I know, I know, it's easy to make these decisions after the fact, but I bet at least 90% of the Twins fans watching, put their palm to their face when you saw Bass walking to the mound. I thought it should have been Neshek (joking).

That's about it for my answers, please feel free to tell me how I am a complete moron in the comments section.

AL Central, Dumb Comment and WSOP

As we all know 14 years ago, the MLB was realigned and that realignment berthed the American League Central we have come to know and love. The original group consisted of the Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers and, of course, the Twins. In 1998, Milwaukee went to the NL Central, and Detroit moved in from the AL East to make the division what it is today.

I was actually surprised to see that the Twins have a Win-Loss record of below .500 (.493). I know we had that real bad run in the 90s, but I thought our more recent tear would even it out. But not surprisingly that puts us third behind Cleveland (.544) and Chicago (.524). The Royals are in last with .429 and Detroit is just above them (.438). Another interesting note the Indians are at exactly 1200 wins since the start of the AL central.

I was reading Sid Hartman's article about Hunter and Santana being snubbed for the All-Star game this year and I came across this as the featured comment on the Trib website.

"I do not think we would be better off right now if we had Santana and not Gomez. Santana would pitch every 4 or 5 days and I'm sure would be solid. Gomez on the other hand plays everyday and just ignites this team in a way Johan could never do. Our record would not be a s good if we had Santana and not Gomez. Santana was a reason people came to see the Twins play every 4 or 5 games, Gomez is a big reason why people come out to watch the Twins play EVERYDAY!! Keep it going Twins!!"

While I do like Gomez, I think this is a foolish thing to say. It kinda comes down to the pitcher vs position player thing, but even that doesn't make sense when the position player is batting .269/.305/.374. I would take Santana's 2.96 ERA every 5th day over Gomez right now. Span seems to be a very reasonable replacement for Gomez at CF if needed. I guess my biggest issue is this "Our record would not be a s good if we had Santana and not Gomez."I have to call bullshit on that, but I guess I am wondering what you guys think.

Also, my good friend Pete Christensen made it through the first day of the Main Event at the WSOP in Las Vegas. Day 2a starts tomorrow and he has just above the average amount of chips. I hope he wins the 8 million.

Mid-way point: Cheers and Jeers

By Michael Haas

Editors note: this is Haas's first entry in a while. There are many theories on his lack of blogging, but unfortunately for you, he's back.

The Twins played their 82nd game of the season on Sunday, marking the half-way point of the season. There has been a lot to cheer about lately, and a lot more to cheer in general than we predicted at the beginning of the season.

Here's how the conventional wisdom went heading into the 2008 campaign:

The Twins are in a rebuilding year, with too many young pitchers and inexperienced bats to compete with the Tigers and Indians.

That's all wrong. Here are some fairly obvious observations, which don't match with the expectations we had in the spring:

Cheers:

Carlos Gomez - We weren't sure if this guy would be up in the majors at the beginning of spring training. Although he's still raw, he can absolutly play. He's fast too. His nickname is Go-Go, Which is fun for all the Minnesota 30-something women with their thick Minnesota accents:

"Well, ya know when we get done here at Calhoun we're headed over to the Dome to watch Go-go"

The Rotation (besides Boof) - Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins. This spring, I didn't feel confident that all of those boys could hold a spot in the majors for a long period of time. Perk at Play still hasn't proven he can do it, but he's done pretty well. Baker is a rock. Blackburn has been pretty alright. Slowey is making a Bakeresque turn toward solidity. And don't forget Livan. Considering the expectations, he's done well. We shall we where he ends up, especially if Liriano continues his slow journey back to the bigs.

Alexi Casilla - Forgotten in Triple-A, Casilla came up due to injury, and has been fantastic. We ripped him last year for being a space cadet, but he's cleaned up his act and become a professional. I hereby anoint him the starting second baseman of the new ballpark 2010 awesome team.

Brian Buscher - Is he the long awaited Answer to our third - base - post - Koskie nightmare? Probably not. But I read a Buscher - Coomer comparison the other day. Obviously, I'll take it.

Jeers:

Delmon Young - I proclaimed him my new favorite player at the beginning of the season. He was going to hit like 50 bombs and drive in 120 and build the new bridge all by himself. Fuck.

Neshek - his trademark sidearm pitching motion was a response to an arm injury. Now his sidearm delivery caused him to get injured. Or is it his new diet?

New camera angle at the dome - I don't like the over-the-top camera angle they have from centerfield.

There's still a lot of baseball left to be played. I am thankful that the Twins are competitive this year. Even though it's more fun to bitch about them when they suck.

Player of the Game: Carlos Gomez

Congratulations goes to Carlos Gomez last night. In his last 15 games he has not had one free pass, but last night he had, not one, but two walks! In all but two of the last 18 games he has struck out at least once, but not last night. No strike outs and a couple walks?! I don't want to get ahead of myself but I think Gomez might finally be getting some plate discipline.

Nah, who am I kidding, I am sure this was just a fluke, but let's celebrate his accomplishments when we can.

WAY TO GO CARLOS GOMEZ! (AKA CarGo!)